Man City’s alleged transfer strategy has gone horribly awry as Liverpool receives a $56 million Fábio Carvalho warning.

Liverpool needs to have a summer plan for Fabio Carvalho. One transfer option seems appealing, but a warning from Man City is being delivered in real time.

When discussing the competitive imbalance between Manchester City and Liverpool and other rivals these days, Manchester City supporters are eager to bring up net transfer spend. Although the Abu Dhabi owners made significant investments to establish the club in the beginning—investments that are now the focus of numerous Premier League allegations—the current incarnation of the team appears to be self-sustaining in many ways.

There are several causes for that. One reason is that investing significant sums of money in a variety of squad players over time inevitably creates a situation where very sellable assets are constantly coming and going. For instance, Manchester City was able to quickly turn a profit on Ferran Torres and Danilo.

For Raheem Sterling, it also collected a sizeable sum last summer. The initial transfer fee for signing him from Liverpool back in 2015 has long since been subtracted from many ‘net spend’ calculations, but Manchester City actually sold him for almost exactly the same amount it cost to buy him in the first place.

But Manchester City’s academy is one of the less-noticed ways the company is currently able to consistently make money. Youth players see their values inflated simply by being associated with the club, especially if they see a few minutes with the first team. In some ways, this is just an added benefit of being at the top of the game.

It should be noted that Manchester City has made significant investments in its academy system, which have been very successful and have helped to develop a number of players with exceptional talent. Future transfer fees for players like Rico Lewis and Phil Foden could be greatly reduced.

Gavin Bazunu and Roméo Lavia, who were sold to Southampton last summer for a combined $32 million (£26 million/€30 million), have already generated revenue for the team.

With all due respect to Bazunu, the move to sell the goalkeeper for a profit appears nothing short of brilliant. No league goalkeeper underperformed by a greater margin as the Saints lost despite expected goals indicating they should have barely survived.

Regarding Lavia, there might already be some sellers’ remorse. A year later, Football Insider reports that Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool are all reportedly interested in signing the midfielder for at least $56 million (£45 million/€52 million).

Although they recognized his potential, Rodri was seen by Manchester City as a barrier to any quick progress. The eventual transfer plan must have been met with high fives all around — pure profit to bank on the books, but with a buy-back clause set at a relatively reasonable $50m (£40m/€47m) in the event Lavia fulfilled his considerable promise.

It has been suggested that Liverpool may try to do something similar with Fábio Carvalho a year from now. He was acquired from Fulham last summer, unlike Lavia, who was an academy prospect. The Reds, however, paid a relatively small fee and would make a respectable profit from any sale, with a buy-back serving as potential insurance.

It is very similar to that situation. Carvalho’s immense talent is still well known to Liverpool, but Jürgen Klopp is currently unable to use him. The temptation to make some money now while still holding an option on the 20-year-old may be strong, especially in light of a significant summer rebuild.

However, the current state of affairs with Lavia should act as a grave caution. Manchester City’s option does not go into effect until the summer of 2019, as is customary with buy-back clauses. Amazingly, according to Football Insider, Pep Guardiola’s team might even enter the auction, outbidding its own dormant buy-back clause and spending about $39 million (£31 million/€36 million) more than the price at which he was sold the previous year.

What seemed to be a lose-lose transfer strategy has turned out to be a catastrophe. Manchester City will either have to pay a steep price to re-sign Lavia on the open market or watch as one of its best former players is acquired by a rival. Additionally, even if the clause was in effect, it would not stop other teams from matching the offer and the player from choosing to move elsewhere.

Perhaps for this reason, despite RB Leipzig’s interest in Carvalho this summer, The Athletic reports that Liverpool is “adamant” that only a loan will be approved for him. Although the current Manchester City likes to portray itself as a bulwark of market efficiency, Klopp should be extremely cautious about copying this tactic.