Prediction and Pick for South Carolina Women’s Basketball vs. Duke in the 2025 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — South Carolina women’s basketball narrowly escaped a tense Sweet 16 matchup against No. 4 Maryland, securing a 71-67 victory and advancing to their fifth consecutive Elite Eight. The Gamecocks (33-3), who are the No. 1 seed, will face No. 2 Duke on Sunday at 1 p.m. in Legacy Arena, part of the Birmingham 2 Regional.

This upcoming clash is a rematch from the SEC/ACC Challenge back on December 5, where the Blue Devils (29-7) fought back late but ultimately fell short in a 81-70 defeat at Colonial Life Arena. Since then, Duke has bounced back with impressive wins, including a victory over UNC in the Sweet 16.

Here’s what to know heading into Sunday’s Elite Eight game:

South Carolina, Duke Head into Rematch After Struggles on Offense

Duke’s offense struggled in their Sweet 16 win over UNC, scoring 10 or fewer points in three of the four quarters. After trailing 11-0 to start the game, the Blue Devils managed to score 19 points in the second quarter but finished the game shooting just 31% from the field (18-of-52) and converted only 5-of-24 from beyond the arc.

South Carolina didn’t fare much better, finishing at 38% from the field (25-of-65) and hitting just 4-of-15 on three-pointers. Despite both teams’ offensive inefficiencies, Sunday’s game promises to be a defensive battle.

Duke’s Guard-Forward Duo Presents a Challenge for Staley’s Defense

South Carolina coach Dawn Staley acknowledged concerns about her team’s defensive execution against Maryland, and now, they face a dangerous Duke duo that’s been leading the charge offensively. Forward Toby Fournier averages 13.4 points per game, while guard Ashlon Jackson is right behind at 12.5. Jackson brings speed and shooting range, capable of sinking quick 3-pointers, while Fournier prefers to work inside.

In their first matchup, neither player scored more than eight points, but in the games that followed, Fournier exploded for over 20 points. Staley’s defense will need to contain this versatile duo to keep Duke from gaining momentum.

South Carolina vs. Duke: A Battle of Defensive Powerhouses

Defensively, South Carolina ranks 32nd in the country, allowing just 57.3 points per game, though Duke edges them out slightly at 29th with 57.1 points allowed. While both teams struggled offensively in their respective Sweet 16 games, South Carolina boasts a much higher average, scoring 80.8 points per game (12th in the nation), while Duke averages 73.8.

Both teams excel at forcing tough shots and playing disciplined, one-on-one defense, which should make for an intense, low-scoring affair.

Key Players for South Carolina: Edwards, Fulwiley, and Kitts

Sophomore guard MiLaysia Fulwiley was a standout against Maryland, scoring 23 points, while Chloe Kitts delivered a double-double with 15 points and 11 rebounds. However, freshman forward Joyce Edwards, who leads the team with an average of 13.2 points per game, has struggled in the last two games. Edwards scored only five points against Indiana and six points on Friday, facing increased pressure from opponents in the post.

South Carolina’s bench depth, led by Kitts and Fulwiley, will be crucial, as they aim to keep their momentum going. Both players were key to the team’s success in the SEC Tournament and will look to continue that form in the Elite Eight.

Experience vs. Youth: March Madness History

One significant factor that could play in South Carolina’s favor is experience. With multiple national championships under their belt, Coach Dawn Staley knows her team has what it takes to perform in high-stress games. Meanwhile, Duke is in its first Elite Eight appearance since 2013, marking Kara Lawson’s farthest run with the Blue Devils.

Duke has had its struggles in recent seasons, falling in the Sweet 16 in 2024 to UConn and to Colorado in the second round in 2023. This year, however, they’ve made a significant run, and Coach Lawson will be looking to use the team’s momentum to challenge South Carolina’s dominance.

The Prediction: South Carolina vs. Duke

Looking ahead to Sunday’s matchup, the prediction is that South Carolina will come out on top, with a 74-65 victory over Duke. Despite their recent performances, the Gamecocks are determined to play better and stronger against a talented Blue Devils squad.