Prediction for SEC Tournament Championship: South Carolina’s Dawn Staley vs. Texas’ Madison Booker

Live from Bon Secours Wellness Arena, we’re gearing up for a thrilling showdown between No. 1 seed South Carolina and No. 2 seed Texas in the SEC Tournament Championship, a matchup that holds even more weight this time around. These two powerhouse teams are set to face off for the third time this season, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. This game will decide the SEC tournament champion, with tipoff scheduled for Sunday at 3 p.m. (ESPN).

Both teams finished the regular season as co-champions of the SEC, with a coin flip needed to determine the top seed between the Gamecocks (29-3) and the Longhorns (31-2). Here’s what you need to know heading into this crucial contest.

What happened the last time South Carolina played Texas?

The last time South Carolina met Texas was on February 9 in Austin, where the Gamecocks suffered their first conference loss of the season, falling 66-62. South Carolina struggled offensively, shooting just 21-of-57 from the floor and hitting only five of 19 attempts from beyond the arc. The team had a particularly tough time in the fourth quarter, finishing at a mere 26.67% with just four of 15 shots made. Despite tying the game six times, South Carolina never held the lead.

Madison Booker’s performance against South Carolina’s defense

Madison Booker, the standout sophomore for Texas, had a mixed bag of performances against South Carolina this season. In the first meeting on January 12, South Carolina held Booker to just seven points on 3-of-19 shooting, with the Gamecocks securing a 67-50 victory at home in Columbia. However, in the rematch in Austin, Booker found her rhythm, scoring 20 points on 7-of-11 shooting. Over two games, Booker has totaled 27 points, shooting 10-of-30 from the field. For the season, Booker averages 16.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game and has been consistent, scoring in double digits in all but one game since that victory over South Carolina.

Dawn Staley vs. Vic Schaefer: A history of competition

When it comes to coaching head-to-head, South Carolina’s Dawn Staley has a clear upper hand over Texas’ Vic Schaefer, with a 14-4 overall record. While Schaefer did earn the most recent victory with Texas, Staley has a strong history against him, especially in SEC tournament matchups. Staley has beaten Schaefer in the SEC tournament finals four times—in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020—while Schaefer’s Mississippi State team got the better of South Carolina in the 2019 SEC championship game. Schaefer, who was recently named the 2025 SEC Coach of the Year, will need to find a way to crack Staley’s defensive schemes if Texas is to succeed again.

Key factors for Sunday’s championship game

• Defense in the post: In their previous loss, South Carolina struggled to contain Texas‘ taller post players. Dawn Staley had to make adjustments, pulling Chloe Kitts and Joyce Edwards due to post defense issues. On Sunday, Staley will need both forwards to step up and deliver defensively in the paint.
• 3-point shooting: The Longhorns beat South Carolina without a single made 3-pointer in their previous encounter. As Texas ranks near the bottom of the SEC in 3-point attempts, forcing them into uncomfortable situations beyond the arc could disrupt their offensive rhythm.
• Sania Feagin and Bree Hall in sync: One of the key defensive strategies for South Carolina in their earlier win was how Bree Hall kept Booker in check while Sania Feagin provided strong help defense. This combination made it difficult for Booker to create shots and set up her teammates, a tactic South Carolina will likely rely on again.
• Consistent effort: The Longhorns are ranked No. 1 in the nation, and if South Carolina lets up at any point, Texas will make them pay. Rebounding and securing second-chance opportunities will be vital to South Carolina‘s success in this game. Every loose ball and rebound will matter.

Score prediction for the SEC Tournament Championship

With everything on the line, I predict South Carolina will come out on top, winning 85-77. The Gamecocks are hungry for redemption and poised to take home the SEC tournament title. Stay tuned for what promises to be an exciting conclusion to the tournament!