South Carolina vs. Texas odds, preview, and expert predictions for 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four

In the highly anticipated Final Four of the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament, top-seeded teams from the SEC, Texas (35-3) and South Carolina (34-3), will face off this Friday. This marks the fourth meeting between the two squads this season. The victorious team will advance to the championship game on Sunday to compete against the winner of the UConn vs. UCLA matchup. During the regular season, the teams each won one game on their home court, but South Carolina triumphed in the SEC Tournament title game, defeating Texas 64-45.

South Carolina, aiming for its fourth national title since 2017 under head coach Dawn Staley, is poised for another championship run, while Texas holds a single national title from 1986.

The game will tip off at 7 p.m. ET at Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay. As the teams prepare to battle it out, the latest odds have South Carolina as 4.5-point favorites, with an over/under set at 126.5 points. Before making any picks for the South Carolina vs. Texas game, be sure to check out insights from SportsLine experts Aaron Barzilai and Calvin Wetzel.

Barzilai, a Stanford Ph.D. and former Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers, and Wetzel, who combines a strong background in mathematics with deep knowledge of women’s basketball, have been making winning predictions all season. They boast an impressive 543-383 overall record (+122.89 units) during the 2023-24 women’s college basketball season and a 125-71-1 record (+44.33 units) so far in 2024-25.

Here’s a breakdown of their top picks for the South Carolina vs. Texas showdown:

Texas +4.5
Both teams won on their respective home courts during the regular season, with South Carolina’s SEC Tournament victory technically happening on a neutral court, but one heavily favored by their fanbase, as it was held in Greenville, S.C., just 100 miles from their campus. “This will be the first true neutral site meeting, and despite South Carolina’s dominance in two of the first three, this spread is a bit too high for Texas,” said Wetzel. “South Carolina hasn’t covered since the first round, and just last weekend, they barely escaped with wins in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight.”

Under 126.5 points
Excluding the lopsided first-round victories, both teams have favored lower-scoring games in the tournament so far. Both Texas and South Carolina held their respective last opponents to under 50 points. “These teams are tough, physical, and defensive-minded, and their defensive strengths align well with the other’s offensive style,” Wetzel explained. “The highest-scoring meeting was 128 points, and the other two were below 120. The intensity of the Final Four will only further favor defense.”

For those looking for more expert picks on the Women’s NCAA Tournament, don’t miss out on the full range of predictions from Wetzel and Barzilai, who are up 44 units this season on women’s college basketball picks.